Make Better Decisions: Odds, the ITR Screen, and the 50/50 Partner Test

1. List the last five big decisions you made in the past few months (Bet-David's range: $10,000 to $10 million at stake).
2. Write the dollar amount next to each.
3. Score each decision 3, 5 or 10 for how good the decision turned out to be.
4. Mark whether the set is all positive, all negative or mixed. If you only wrote wins, you are not done.
5. Add the one decision from the last twelve months that cost you money or went against you. Keep it for the next exercise.

Finish with: A scored record of five decisions plus one identified failure to dissect.

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1. Using your scorecard, count how many of the five went the way you wanted.
2. For each, note how long you took to decide and whether a competitor would have moved faster.
3. Rate your gut: did your instinct about the market, the people or the political climate hold up?
4. For each miss, write which of the three responses you gave: blame, escape, or responsibility.
5. Write one sentence on the pattern you see.

Finish with: A one-paragraph honest read on how often, how fast and how responsibly you decide.

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1. Start with Return: what is the impact of this crisis per week or per month if nothing changes? Put a dollar figure on it (example: no estimator means no bids, so $200,000 a week in lost revenue).
2. Then Time: how long will the fix take? (Example: thirty days with an interim consultant.)
3. Then Investment: what does the fix cost? (Example: $10,000 for a semi-retired estimator as an emergency consultant.)
4. Write the three numbers on one line and compare Return to Investment.
5. Bring the problem to your leader with the ITR attached, or, if the Return is small, just solve it and do not escalate.

Finish with: A one-line, quantified case for action (or a decision not to escalate).

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1. Write the problem at the top of a page.
2. Ask: is it a repeat issue? If yes, did the last solution work? If no, investigate: was it a money issue?
3. Write the impact and the tier: is this something we must address now? Decide if it is signal or noise, and score its urgency.
4. Root cause: ask why the problem happened, then ask why of that answer, five times, until you reach the real cause.
5. List the stakeholders who can help fix it. Was there buy-in, or was it all on you?
6. List your top five ideas to fix it and pick the one that solves it now.
7. Share the plan with your team. Then answer: can this happen again? Close and archive it, or flag it as likely to restart.

Finish with: A completed one-page analysis of a failed decision with a chosen fix and a recurrence flag.

Copy exercise

1. Form a group of four, ideally with people you have not worked with before.
2. Each person shares the failed decision they ran through the flow, in two minutes.
3. The group names the pattern: what could you do better next time you make a decision like that?
4. Each person writes down one rule they will apply to the next decision of that type.
5. Pick one specific (not general) lesson to share with the wider team.

Finish with: One personal decision rule per person and one specific lesson for the team.

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1. List the last three crises your company faced.
2. Label each with its type: health, technology, organizational, violence or revenge, defamation, financial, market, black swan, white swan, personal, natural.
3. For each, note how long it lasted and which factor stretched it: no strategy, panic, over-exaggeration, or downplaying.
4. Write the ITR you should have had at the start.
5. For the two crisis types most likely to hit you next year, write who owns the response and what the first three moves are.

Finish with: A one-page crisis map with owners and first moves for your two most likely crisis types.

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1. Read the facts: two best friends, 50/50 equity and decisions. Blake runs sales and vision, Eric runs operations and product. Revenue is $32 million; to stay relevant they need $80 million in 36 months. Eric runs ops the way he did at $8 million, does not read the books or attend the events, and takes 45 days of vacation a year. Three senior hires complained privately; two of Eric's direct reports quit; the biggest client called ops the weakest part of working with the company. Blake has confronted Eric more than once; Eric agrees every time and nothing changes.
2. You are Blake. In groups, write your next three to five moves for the next five weeks.
3. Stress-test every move with Bet-David's question: what if Eric simply says no?
4. Add moves for the two forgotten stakeholders: the senior hires who complained and the biggest client.
5. Present and grade each plan: par (sound), birdie (strong), eagle (something nobody else said).

Finish with: A five-move plan that survives a partner refusing to cooperate and covers staff and client fallout.

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1. Write each partner's equity percentage in one column.
2. In the next column, write honestly what percentage of the value created today comes from each partner.
3. Where the gap is large, ask whether that partner would like to take cash off the table.
4. Draft the valuation process: one valuer you choose, one they choose, one you both agree on, settle in the middle.
5. Decide what a serious conversation, a buyout offer, or a new operating rule (such as an EBITDA floor with veto rights) would look like.
6. Name the third party you would bring into the room.

Finish with: A written picture of where equity and contribution diverge and a resolution path for each partner.

Copy exercise

1. Take your next scheduled team training and cut your speaking to twenty minutes.
2. Write one prompt or case study with a clear question ('what are your next three to five moves?').
3. Split people into groups of four with a time limit.
4. Have groups line up and present; interrupt anyone who repeats an earlier answer and ask for something new.
5. Grade answers publicly (par, birdie, eagle) and close with a real story that shows how it played out.

Finish with: A repeatable training format that develops leaders instead of listeners.

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